With the FIFA World Cup 2026 group stage complete, the tournament has entered the knockout rounds, and Opta's latest supercomputer simulation has identified the leading contenders for the title. After running the remainder of the competition 25,000 times, the model has calculated every team's probability of reaching the final and lifting football's biggest trophy.
The expanded 48-team format has produced a highly competitive Round of 32. While several underdogs secured knockout places, most of the tournament favorites successfully advanced. Uruguay became the most notable early casualty after failing to survive the group stage.
France Climbs to the Top
France has emerged as the new favorite to win the World Cup. Before the tournament began, Didier Deschamps' side had a 13.0% chance of becoming champions. Following an outstanding group-stage campaign, that figure has increased to 18.7%.
Les Bleus won all three of their group matches, matching a feat they had not achieved at a major international tournament since the 1998 FIFA World Cup, when they lifted the trophy on home soil. According to Opta's projections, France is expected to overcome Sweden before potentially facing Germany and later Spain on the road to the final. Football fans following the knockout stage can also check the latest betting odds and match predictions at https://cabriolife.ru to stay informed before every World Cup fixture.
Argentina Receives the Most Favorable Draw
Argentina now ranks second among the title favorites with a 16.3% chance of winning the tournament. Lionel Scaloni's squad appears to have received one of the most favorable knockout paths.
Cape Verde awaits in the Round of 32, while possible later opponents include Australia or Egypt before a potential quarter-final against Switzerland, Algeria, Colombia or Ghana. Brazil or England are projected as likely semi-final opponents if Argentina continues its winning run.
Spain and England Remain in Contention
Spain entered the competition as the pre-tournament favorite but now sits third with a 13.5% title probability. A possible Round of 16 clash with Portugal could become one of the most exciting matches of the knockout stage.
England currently owns a 9.7% chance of lifting the trophy. Thomas Tuchel's unbeaten record in competitive matches remains intact, but Opta suggests the Three Lions face a difficult path that may include Mexico and Brazil before reaching the semi-finals.
Brazil, Netherlands and the Host Nations
Brazil's championship chances have remained virtually unchanged at 6.5%, while the Netherlands improved its outlook after an impressive attacking display during the group stage.
Among the three host nations, the United States has the strongest projection of reaching the quarter-finals at 42.5%. Mexico follows with 28.3%, while Canada has a 25.2% probability of making the last eight.
With the knockout bracket now confirmed, every match becomes increasingly significant, and the Opta Supercomputer expects several heavyweight clashes before the FIFA World Cup 2026 champion is crowned on July 19.